A new rumor has surfaced regarding the future of Star Wars at Hasbro. I thought about whether or not to even talk about it, since the source is the usual YouTube rumor mill in the shape of “the future ruler of earth” aka “Overlord DVD”. And before you groan or shake your head… I think this rumor, even if untrue, at least warrants a discussion. Also, this is supposed to be fun, as in “let’s just speculate”. Because even if untrue, there are some things we know for sure that make it at least plausible.
So what is the rumor? Allegedly Hasbro is so fed up with Star Wars that they want out of their contract and sell the license off, which, according to the report, is still good for another five years. But sales have declined so much that it’s no longer worth it for Hasbro.
Click through to read my thoughts on this.
Apply the usual truckloads of salt, you know the drill
So the basic question is: would Hasbro ever consider abandoning Star Wars?
Well, in my opinion if something stops selling then yes. Hasbro would not cling to Star Wars if it no longer makes them any money and if no improvement is on the horizon.
These are the things we know:
- partner brand sales have declined for several quarters in a row now, to all time record lows
- according to analysts in Q4/2023 both the Marvel and Star Wars toylines were “tired”, as in, sales are declining (and this was for the very important holiday season)
- the TVC HasLab crawled across the finish line this year, not even unlocking the final tier, GI Joe crushed it, soaring to 28k sold items and all tiers unlocked of course
And I want to add an observation: all the recent toy reveals are fan channel / Amazon / Pulse releases. What they are NOT are Walmart or Target releases. In short: both retailers won’t carry the toys. At all.
In fact, when was the last time Hasbro revealed a slew of new figures… and none of them were Walmart or Target exclusives? There are still some, a few, but the number of exclusives has greatly declined. And while you may at first think “great” this is bad news for Hasbro. Because if a retailer believes in a brand they will ask for exclusives. If they no longer want exclusives this is bad news. It means they are losing faith in it, even as a loss leader.
Now according to the rumor not even “vintage toys” are selling, the report suggests that these are Luke, Vader, Leia etc… but I am not so sure, it’s not entirely clear if instead “The Vintage Collection” is referenced here instead.
Either way… I had always assumed Hasbro would at least keep the license all the way until 2027, so they can exploit the 50th anniversary of Star Wars.
But when you look at the roadmap and potential sales Hasbro can expect I have to say… even if the rumor may be untrue, I think it is plausible that Hasbro is considering all options here. Because when you look at the Star Wars roadmap there’s literally nothing Hasbro could make money with. They must be furious with Lucasfilm because of their inaptitude to release content the mainstream can enjoy (let’s also not forget that the Indiana Jones toys flopped).
- 2024: The Acolyte and Skeleton Crew – The Acolyte is an unmitigated disaster and it’s safe to assume the few Acolyte toys we’ll get will not sell – at all. Skeleton Crew with a bunch of kids, Jude Law and leftover villains from The Mandalorian will almost certainly not move many toys either, if Hasbro would even touch the kid characters in the first place
- 2025: Andor – that’s the only thing happening in 2025 as far as we know, and while I personally love Andor it’s also not a show that will ever sell many toys
- 2026: The Mandalorian & Grogu – now this movie may be a success, but Hasbro will still have a problem here. Unless Lucasfilm radically redesigns everything everyone and their aunt and uncle already have all the Mando and Grogu merchandise anyone could ever need. Will Hasbro make their 10th Mando figure with minute differences or one new accessory? So I cannot see how Hasbro can move a lot of toys for something people already bought the merchandise for when it was a successful show on Disney+
And then there’s the potential Rey movie (although other rumors here say the movie may never happen now and that Kennedy will get no funding for her movie, also the script writer now has other plans too, he wants to create a new movie studio in Hollywood which may keep him busy and away from working on the script) later in 2026. Let’s just say the chances that this will be a “The Marvels” moment for Lucasfilm are much greater than this being a success (my money is on “it will never be released”). And if Hasbro were contractually obligated to support this movie with merchandise they may end up with containers full of stuff no one wants, clogging their warehouses. And if the Rey movie does not happen, it still means there’s nothing that could boost sales
Maybe Ahsoka season 2 could release in 2026 as well… but this has the same issue as the Mandalorian movie… unless they redesign all the characters (a possibility) people already have all the essential Acolyte toys. How many more Ahsokas does anyone need? Or Sabines?
In short: if you look at what’s upcoming for Star Wars there is literally nothing that could boost sales or even create demand for years to come.
Great, you may say, so Hasbro can focus entirely on the Lucas era. But the issue is, the OT/PT only folks are not enough to support this brand anymore. Hasbro, Star Wars, Lucasfilm, needs new content that keeps the interest up. You can sell toys based on nearly 50 year old movies only so much. The Mandalorian hype and boom from 2020/2021 proves this. It was The Mandalorian alone that breathed new life into Star Wars toy sales. It would not be worth it for Hasbro if they can only sell toys to a dwindling number of diehard Lucas era fans.
And with Star Wars now greatly reducing the output and with the upcoming shows or movies being nothing that will probably revitalize sales… the question is… is it still worth it for Hasbro? Given how they have so much overhead and need to move a lot of toys. One of the designers (Chris) famously said in a YouTube fan Q&A that brand new figures (all new tooling) no longer necessarily amortize their tooling costs with their initial production run. Few people seemed to have picked up on that but that statement is revelatory.
Let that sink in. Production runs must be so low by now that a brand new figure does not break even (this was for the TVC Boba Fett figure). And Hasbro is in it for the money, not nostalgia.
So with all that I think the rumor is at least plausible. Do I believe it? Not necessarily. Maybe Hasbro hopes things will get better. Maybe they hope the Mando movie will somehow make people buy their 10th Mando and Grogu figures or plushies, maybe they hope the 50th anniversary will be a mega event.
But IF Hasbro quit the Star Wars license or licensed out certain parts of the brand to smaller companies it would not surprise me at all.
Just look at the earnings report, look at the numbers, they are dismal. The rumor claims sales across the board for both Marvel and Star Wars are down 68%. Marvel, like Star Wars, has also been struck hard by massive failures… and Agatha All Along will certainly not make things right, but for Marvel there is at least a glimmer of hope in the form of the Avengers movie with Robert Downey Jr. Star Wars does not even have that. Kennedy seriously wants to bring back Rey instead. And as I said… even a super successful Mandalorian movie would not necessarily result in high toy sales, since I think the market for Mando toys is pretty saturated. Din will still have his Beskar armor, Grogu will still be a toddler wearing his weird coat, the Razor Crest may return, but we already had a HasLab for that.
So potentially Hasbro has nothing to look forward to when it comes to Star Wars for years to come, and unlike in the period between the prequels and the sequels there simply aren’t enough collectors left to keep the brand afloat without new content that creates hype and interest. Also, this was the time of The Clone Wars which had a pretty high viewership when it aired, which kept interest up. And the question is if Hasbro would be willing to sit it all out and to hope things will turn around again with the 50th anniversary. Maybe they are already privy to what Lucasfilm is planning, Hasbro would need to prepare for that beginning in 2025 or so. So Lucasfilm would have to coordinate with their major partner here.
But what do you think? Do you think it’s at least in the realm of possibility that Hasbro may want to quit Star Wars? Or do you think it’s all the usual hogwash and utter nonsense? As I said, I do not really believe any of it… but I think it’s at least something worth thinking about. When WOULD Hasbro quit the license? At what point? How many more times can Lucasfilm fail before Hasbro says… “sorry, that’s it!”?