The Week That Was: 2024 09-28 (September 28, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions.”— Leonardo da Vinci, (1452–1519) [H/t William Readdy]
Number of the Week: 1954
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week discusses the questionable surface temperature data presented by the IPCC and its collaborators. If their data is unreliable any forecasts made by these organizations are unreliable. The once respected International Energy Agency (EIA) has come out with another report of questionable value. New York’s climate festival is over with many false claims. Finally, Microsoft exposes its desperate need for reliable, affordable electricity, not unreliable wind and solar.
*********************
Surface Warming: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its collaborators use dubious surface-air temperature records as the foundation of their climate reports (Assessment Reports 1 to 6, 1990 to 2023). The quality of surface-air temperature is highly questionable, and the extent of coverage varied widely from region to region on the land surface. No reliable data of water surface temperatures existed until the beginning of the Argo Program in 1999, and it was not until 2007 that the 3,000-float goal was reached. Thus, a large part of what the UN IPCC passes off as based on data (measurements) is really based on speculation (estimates). Further, the quality of the data is declining, not increasing.
Ron Clutz draws attention to a paper by Willie Soon and a number of his colleagues who recognize the issue of data quality in trying to estimate surface temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere: “The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data.” The abstract states:
“A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.” [Boldface added]
In short, for the Northern Hemisphere land masses, we cannot separate natural influences from human influences on temperatures or temperature trends. Further, for the largest land mass for which there are reliable records, the 48 states of the US, the warmest decade was the 1930s. Thus, claims of the “hottest year ever” are without a firm foundation.
Further as shown by NIPCC, 2008, and Clutz, the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) station count has dropped considerably from a peak of about 5750 in the early 1970s to about 25% of that in the 2010.
Using charts from the paper, Ron Clutz states:
“This new research has unveiled another flaw in the IPCC‘s temperature narrative as trend lines in its revised temperature datasets are different from those published by the IPCC. For example, the rural records now show a marked warming trend in the 1930s and 1940s while there is only a slight warming trend in the IPCC dataset. The most significant difference is the existence of a marked cooling period in the rural dataset for the 1960s and 1970s that is almost absent in the IPCC’s urban dataset. This later divergence upsets the common narrative that rising carbon dioxide levels control modern warming trends. For, if carbon dioxide levels are the driver of modern warming, how can a higher rate of increasing carbon dioxide levels exist within a cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s while a lower increasing rate of carbon dioxide levels coincides with an earlier warming interval in the 1930s and 1940s? Or, in other words, how can carbon dioxide levels increasing at 1.7 parts per million per decade cause a distinct warming period in the 1930s and 1940s while a larger increasing rate of 10.63 parts per million per decade is associated with a distinct cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s! Consequently, the research of Willie Soon and his coworkers is discrediting, not only the higher rate of global warming trends specified in IPCC Reports, but also the theory that rising carbon dioxide levels explain modern warming trends; a lynchpin of IPCC science for the last 25 years.
Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain that climate scientists need to consider other possible explanations for recent global warming. Willie Soon and his coworkers point to the Sun, but the IPCC maintains that variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) are over eons and not over shorter periods such as the last few centuries. For that reason, the IPCC point to changes in greenhouse gases as the most obvious explanation for global warming since 1850. In contrast, Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain there can be short-term changes in solar activity and, for example, refer to a period of no sunspot activity that coincided with the Little Ice Age in the 17th Century. They also point out there is still no agreed average figure for Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) despite 30 years of measurements taken by various satellites. Consequently, they contend research in this area is not settled. [Boldface added]
The CERES-SCIENCE research project pioneered by Dr Willie Soon and the father-son Connolly team has questioned the validity of the high global warming trends for the 1850-present period that have been published by the IPCC since its first report in 1992. The research also queries the IPCC narrative that rising greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide, are the primary driver of global warming since 1850. That narrative has been the foundation of IPCC climate science for the last 40 years. It will be interesting to see how the IPCC’s 7th Assessment Report in 2029 treats this new research that questions the very basis of IPCC’s climate science.”
TWTW suggests that the UN IPCC bureaucratic ship is too big to turn before it crashes disastrously. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Airheads Unite: The once respected International Energy Agency (EIA) has come out with another dubious glossy report on implementing the illusionary goals of the 28th Conference of Parties (COP 28, 2023) which asserts it will keep global warming below 1.5 °C and begin the transition away from the fossil fuel area. Of course, the UN IPCC and its collaborators blame fossil fuels, namely carbon dioxide—essential for photosynthesis, and all food needed by complex life—for global warming. As shown by Soon, et al., above, the UN and its collaborators cannot separate natural (solar caused) warming from human caused and imply that all warming is human (carbon dioxide) caused.
Under the subheading, “Key benchmarks for energy system transitions aligned with the COP28 outcome”, the Executive Summary states [Boldface in original]:
“By 2030, to support the full implementation of the COP28 outcome, the world needs to:
- Achieve a global storage capacity of 1 500 GW and build or modernize 25 million kilometers of grids.
- Achieve a share of electricity in final energy consumption of 30%.
- Achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of universal access to clean cooking.
- Increase the efficiency of new air conditioners sold by 50%.
By 2035, to guide energy sector ambitions for the timeframe of the next NDCs:
- Quintuple renewables capacity, maintain the rate of efficiency improvements at 4%, and build or modernize another 30 million kilometers of grids, bringing the total to 55 million kilometers built or modernized from today.
- Achieve a share of electricity in final consumption of 35% globally.
- Scale up nuclear power capacity by 1.8 times and sustainable low-emissions fuels by 2.8 times, including carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), low-emissions hydrogen and sustainable bioenergy.”
Under the subheading “Without grids and storage, the tripling of renewables will not succeed” the summary states:
“With today’s policy settings and technology trends, the world is on course to achieve more than three-quarters of the growth needed for the goal of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030. Achieving the tripling goal is possible with faster capacity expansion. To reap the economic and emissions benefits of the tripling of renewables, while ensuring reliable and affordable access to electricity, countries need to focus on a range of measures to ensure that the renewables coming online are securely integrated and displace fossil fuel generation.
This requires faster but responsible permitting processes, more than 25 million kilometers of electricity grids to be built or upgraded by 2030, and global energy storage capacity to grow to 1 500 GW by 2030. Slow permitting for new grid expansions, a lack of investment in many (often state-owned) grid companies in emerging market and developing economies, and old and outdated grids in advanced economies are key bottlenecks. Integrating the large increase in variable renewable generation implied by the tripling goal also requires a range of measures, including around 1 500 GW of storage capacity to be installed by 2030, of which 1 200 GW is battery storage – a nearly fifteen-fold increase on today’s level.
Failure to take the necessary action would result in higher electricity prices, more coal and gas generation, higher curtailment of renewables and higher emissions. Our modelling of a partial implementation of the tripling goal, in which grids and storage lag behind the expansion of capacity, results in almost 40% more coal generation and higher curtailment.”
How modern civilization, which requires reliable, affordable electricity, can operate on such a system, and how much all these improvements will cost? No one knows. But it is great to have grand dreams when one has no responsibility for implementing them. Such is the case of the IEA and many international organizations. The real joke is the claim that failure to implement these dreams of an unknown cost will result in more expensive electricity.
Unfortunately, too many politicians promise they can implement these grand dreams, without understanding the complexities involved. Germany and the UK are among the countries that finding out that such airhead politicians are very expensive to keep.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, Questioning European Green, and Non-Green Jobs.
*******************
Climate Week NYC: A weeklong celebration in New York City is honoring the annual opening of the UN and its new goal of “fighting climate change,” which the UN arrogantly pretends to know how to do. There is a great deal of slick propaganda surrounding this effort and appalling ignorance of physical facts is on wide display.
According to a special website Climate Week NYC launched with a Global To-Do list to get world ‘on-track’ on climate in one year: According to the CEO of “Climate Group” Helen Clarkson:
The Global To-Do List calls for seven climate actions across key sectors and systems. They are:
- Support workers to power down coal – Climate Group is calling for greater compensation for workers to be considered, such as paying workers for three years if a site shuts early. Bolder policies are needed to enable a faster plan to replace more coal by 2030.
- Unleash renewables – In many G20 countries permitting issues, regulations, and sometimes woefully unambitious targets, are acting as a drag on the roll-out of renewables. Climate Group is urging for governments to break down these barriers this year, to have any chance of reaching the G20 and COP28 commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
- Ban relining of coal-based steel furnaces – Climate Group is highlighting the large number of steel plants due to be re-lined, meaning coal usage for another 15 years or more. Electric furnaces and production of green hydrogen should be the norm from now on.
- Get serious on methane – a fast and sustained reduction in methane emissions is critical to curbing global warming. Climate Group is calling for governments to build a more powerful global agency that by COP next year has the authority to audit fossil fuel companies’ declarations and delivery, and the resources and talent to tackle the biggest leaks.
- Stop ignoring energy efficiency – energy efficiency of buildings is still overlooked even though it makes money. Every business should set a target to become 5% more efficient in 12 months’ time by managing insulation, heating, cooling, industrial energy and using EVs. Equally, governments need to be bolder, the G20 should agree a minimum investment incentive, following the lead of the US.
- Buy clean – businesses and Governments have enormous purchasing power, amounting to $100bn’s every year that can shift markets. So, it’s time for every government and large business to set climate as a prequalification-criteria for their procurement. All of them should now be buying healthy, lower carbon food, setting targets for lower carbon steel and concrete, and buying 100 percent renewables and EVs.
- Tax oil and gas companies to fund the transition – to ensure the polluter pays, the G20 should agree a minimum new import tax on oil and gas. A few dollars per barrel would raise 100s of billions of dollars to support the transition. Every quarter, oil and gas companies announce billions in profits and do not invest those in the transition.
“We’re not naive, we understand these policies are challenging”, Clarkson continued. “But these actions are concrete, doable, and proved. There’s no reason to waste another year – we simply can’t afford to.”
Maybe they are not naïve, but they totally lack critical thinking skills – “unleash renewables”?
Included in this propaganda onslaught is a slick piece by Virgin.com – a major sponsor. It has a graph claiming to show “Planetary Boundaries – Earth’s Vital Signs” with a “Safe Operating Space” in the center. Former NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco will be disappointed that her favorite vital sign, so-called ocean acidification, is still in the safe space. Among the danger areas are Introduction of Novel Entities (whatever that means); Change in Biosphere Integrity, Genetic Diversity (is Earth flourishing with more CO2 a bad thing?); and Modification of Biogeochemical Flows with the Nitrogen Cycle featured. Apparently, the fake harm caused by artificial fertilizers exceeds many other horrors for Earth.
Symbolizing the air-headedness of this effort was a keynote speech by Jennifer Morgan, German State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action. She stated:
“I think we’ve entered a new climate era. I think that we’re seeing that the issues that the scientists told us about years ago that might come in the future are happening now. We’re seeing in Germany, two years ago, a flood in the Ahr Valley that cost 30 billion euros.”
As the July 24, 2021, TWTW stated:
“The Ahr River is a relatively short river roughly 89 kilometers (55 mi) arising in the steep terrain of Rhine Land, Germany, which borders Luxembourg and Belgium. It forms the steep Ahr Valley running east, noted for producing red wines from vineyards terraced in the hillside. Before emptying into the Rhine River, the Ahr broadens out providing flatter land for growing fruits and vegetables. Like all steep river valleys, such as those in West Virginia, the Ahr Valley is subject to flash floods. The last catastrophic one was in 1910.
Beginning July 13, major flooding occurred in Germany and Belgium and to a lesser degree in Holland. According to reports, including The Sunday Times, officials in “Germany knew the floods were coming, but the warnings didn’t work. Weather scientists say a ‘monumental failure of the system’ is directly to blame for the death and devastation triggered by a month’s worth of rain that fell in two days this week.”
According to flood records on buildings, there was a more severe flood in 1804. The German State Secretary is a true believer and acknowledging weather events in her country does not interfere with her beliefs.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy
*******************
False Promotions: For years developers of wind and solar have declared the companies such as Microsoft and other datacenter developers are buying their unreliable electricity. Actually, Microsoft and others were buying “good will” while misleading many citizens as to the reliability of wind and solar. Solar power is useless at night and wind power is useless frequently for datacenters which require reliable power, 99.999999% of the time.
Microsoft has finally pulled back the charade on these schemes. According to reports, it has struck a deal with nuclear energy operator Constellation Energy which will reopen the Three Mile Island facility in Pennsylvania. TMI’s Unit 2 suffered a partial meltdown in 1979, and became a symbol of nuclear hazards for the Environmental Industry. The reactions will be interesting. See link under Nuclear Energy and Fears.
*******************
Delayed Another Week: TWTW will not comment on the supposed 485-million-year history of Eart’s surface temperature until next week.
*******************
Hiccup: Last Sunday, our system had a hiccup. Both the website and the distribution systems failed for reasons unknown and then came back up. We still don’t know the cause and apologize for any inconvenience.
*******************
Number of the Week: 1954. On October 15-16, 1954, Hurricane Hazel hit the Toronto Ontario area with winds up to 124 km/h (77 mph) and over 200 millimeters (7.87 inches) of rain fell in just 24 hours. “This horrific storm left 81 dead, nearly 1900 families homeless, and caused between $25 and $100 million in damages (modern-day cost has been estimated at over $1 billion).” So much for claims that hurricanes reaching northern states in the US are unprecedented. https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/hurricane-hazel#:~:text=Hurricane%20Hazel%20struck%20the%20Toronto,fell%20in%20just%2024%20hours
Censorship
Only a government pushing lies has to censor the people: The ACMA Ministry of Misinformation Bill
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 25, 2024
Australia’s Misinformation Police
Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it
By Roger Pielke, Jr., His Blog, Sep 23, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/australias-misinformation-police?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=149295995&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Fatal Flaw Discredits IPCC Science
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 26, 2024
Link to paper: The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data
By Willie Soon, et al., Climate, Aug 2023
https://doaj.org/article/3822f0dc429340939d6deb8ca5eb5243
Not that ET! The Terrestrial ET: EvapoTranspiration, the Unexplored Source of Climate Change
By Charles Blaisdell, WUWT, Sep 27, 2024
Suppression of Science and Inconvenient Truths
By Andy May, WUWT, Sep 27, 2024
Scientists: Climate Forcing Measurement Errors Are ‘Only’ 150 Times Larger Than For CO2 Climate Forcing
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 24, 2024
The Recent Decades Of Cloud Cover Decline May Be A Continuation Of A Trend That Began In 1818
By Kenneth Richard, Net Zero Watch, Sep 27, 2024
Link to paper: Downward Mediterranean Cloudiness Beyond Little Ice Age Background Variability
By Nazzareno Diodato, et al., Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, July 9, 2024
https://spj.science.org/doi/pdf/10.34133/olar.0053
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Week NYC launched with a Global To-Do list to get world ‘on-track’ on climate in one year
Editorial, Climate Week NYC, Sep 21, 2024
https://www.climateweeknyc.org/news/climate-week-nyc-launched-global-do-list-get-world-track-climate-one-year
So, it’s time for every government and large business to set climate as a prequalification-criteria for their procurement. All of them should now be buying healthy, lower carbon food, setting targets for lower carbon steel and concrete, and buying 100 percent renewables and EVs.
[SEPP Comment: Eliminate carbohydrates, proteins, and fats from food?]
Transcript: This is Climate Summit: Global Stakes: Europe
Jennifer Morgan, German State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action
By Staff, The Washington Post, Sep 23, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2024/09/23/transcript-this-is-climate-summit-global-stakes-europe
First Annual Planetary Health Check Flashes Warning Signals
Scientists say humans have a window of five years to change course
The report is the first in a planned series of health check-ups, not unlike an annual physical exam for the planet.
The report is the first in a planned series of health check-ups, not unlike an annual physical exam for the planet
By H. Claire Brown, WSJ, Sept. 24, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-annual-planetary-health-check-flashes-warning-signals-31cf49de?mod=hp_minor_pos16
No Link to: Earth exceeds safe limits: First Planetary Health Check issues red alert
Virgin Unite Website, Accessed Sep 24, 2024
https://www.virgin.com/virgin-unite/latest/earth-exceeds-safe-limits-first-planetary-health-check-issues-red-alert
Somebody Please Tell Kathy Hochul That The Climate Jig Is Up
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 24, 2024
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-9-24-somebody-please-tell-kathy-hochul-that-the-climate-jig-is-up
It’s Climate Week here in New York, and you can feel the excitement. The UN General Assembly is in town, and simultaneously something called the “Climate Group” (“Our mission is to drive climate action. Fast.”) is holding some 600 (!) events to promote policies that they somehow believe will “save the planet.”
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
By Emily J. Judd, et al. AAAS Science, Sep 20, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705
[TWTW will further delay commenting on this questionable history until next week.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Renewable energy, fossil fuel goals within reach, but huge push needed: IEA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 24, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4896208-cop28-clean-energy-goals
Link to report: From Taking Stock to Taking Action
How to implement the COP28 energy goals
By Staff, IEA, September 2024
https://www.iea.org/reports/from-taking-stock-to-taking-action
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Washington Post Inadvertently Reveals The Truth About Global Warming
By Richard Eldred, The Daily Sceptic, Sep 22, 2024
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
#CheerfulChart #8: Deforestation
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
Scots pine under elevated CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
From the CO2Science archive
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Thinking about the future: Examining the exacerbating and attenuating factors of despair-induced climate burnout
Press Release, Flinders University, Sep 25, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/09/240925123634.htm
Link to paper: Thinking about the future: Examining the exacerbating and attenuating factors of despair-induced climate burnout
By Lucy H. Bird, et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, September 2024
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494424001555?via%3Dihub
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Good News: Arctic Ozone Hits Record High
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 26, 2024
Changing Weather
Hurricane Helene
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
Even Cat 1 hurricanes can be deadly. But the media would like you to believe the hurricanes we get nowadays are unprecedented.
The Other “Hurricane” Has Just Hit Our Region!
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 27, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-other-hurricane-has-just-hit-our.html
The First Strong Pacific Fronts of the Season. Amazingly Good Forecasts of Such Fronts are Now Common.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 26, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-first-strong-pacific-fronts-of.html
Changing Climate
Media Confirms the Earth Is Not Abnormally Warm, Rather It Is in Its Coldest Period in 485 Million Years
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2024
Mass Extinction Fail: Messenian Salinity Crisis Version
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 27, 2024
Some reconstructions of the Zanclean megaflood suggest that sea level in the Mediterranean could have risen at a rate of 10 meters per day during the peak flow of water from the Atlantic into the Mediterranean basin.
[SEPP Comment: About 5.3 million years ago.]
Changing Seas
NH Pulls Oceans Warmer August 2024
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 27, 2024
AMOC still chugging along
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
Link to paper: Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state
By Denis L. Volkov, et al., Nature Communications, Sep 5, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51879-5
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
Remember that ‘let’s dump iron in the ocean’ experiment? Nature is actually doing it.
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 24, 2024
Link to paper: Long-range transport of dust enhances oceanic iron bioavailability
By Bridget Kenlee, et al., Frontiers in Marine Science, Sep 19, 2024
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1428621/full
[SEPP Comment: Natural ocean fertilization with iron.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice Volume
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
There has been a suggestion that although Arctic sea ice extent has remained stable since 2007, it is getting thinner.
As the ice volume charts make clear, this is nonsense. Volume, and therefore thickness, have remained as stable as extent:
Arctic Ice Still There!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 22, 2024
Three weeks.
Lowering Standards
Meet Peter Kyle
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
Welcome to our new Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology:
He has no background at all in science or technology.
In other words, just the sort of chap we need to drive forward the technological revolution!
Peter Kyle–The Idiot Who Keeps On Giving
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
This idiot who is our new Secretary of State for Science, who is trying to reassure North Sea oil workers about to lose their jobs that they might get a job hundreds of miles away fitting double glazing!
Labour’s Climate Sleaze
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
“Labour’s appointee to a plum government job is linked with a Cayman Islands-based hedge fund which donated £4 million to the party, The National can reveal.”
New Scientist jumps the climate gun
By David Whitehouse, Sep 26, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/new-scientist-jumps-the-climate-gun
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
How climate change is intensifying storms like Hurricane Helene
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 9, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4904495-climcate-change-hurricanes-intensifying-how
Benitez-Nelson, who is a member of the climate education group Science Moms,
“Hot air can hold more water,” she said. “And it’s dumping massive amounts of water in places that simply are ill prepared to handle that amount of rainfall.”
She pointed to impacts from Hurricane Beryl’s remnants that made their way to Vermont earlier this year. “That’s ridiculous … but that is our future,” she said.
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the “Science Mom” is ignorant of Hazel in 1954 which reached Toronto. But it is inexcusable that the reporter is so ignorant.]
Climate change is turbo-charging Somalia’s problems – Justin Rowlatt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 22, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
“4th Hottest Summer
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 22, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
“under the Intermediate Scenario”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 24, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/09/under-the-intermediate-scenario-2/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/09/under-the-intermediate-scenario/#gsc.tab=0
NOAA has launched a new sea level website which is based on unsupportable claims and appeals to authority.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Exposed: The Fake Coral Reef Scare
Video, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2024
O C Register Publishes a Climate Alarmist “The Heat Rises” Weather Impact Chart Which Should instead be Called “The Hype, Distortion & Deception Rises”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Sep 27, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Newspapers ignoring deaths from cold weather.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
What Is Eco-Anxiety and Why Is It on the Rise?
Fifty-nine percent of 16- to 25-year-olds said they were ’very or extremely worried’ about climate change in one global study of 10,000 people.
By Katie Spence, The Epoch Times, Sep 25, 2024
https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/what-is-eco-anxiety-and-why-is-it-on-the-rise-5726037?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2024-09-25&src_cmp=mb-2024-09-25&utm_medium=email&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY%2B8gfwEs0MDA47xAvWpUyKDc724qoB4H4MMrPANDaQ%3D%3D
[SEPP Comment: The non-stop propaganda of the UN and its climate collaborators is having a harmful influence on Western youth. These organizations have lost all sense of proportion.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
EPA announces environmental justice program within Climate Corps
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 25, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4898659-epa-americorps-environmental-justice-climate-corps
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Jail Time for ‘Just Stop Oil’ Destruction (Van Gogh protected)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 27, 2024
Plummer was jailed for two years and Holland for 20 months. The maximum sentence for the offence is ten years’ imprisonment.
Questioning European Green
“Suddenly everybody hates them”. German leaders resign after crushing Greens election loss
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2024
CPS [Center for Policy Studies] Net Zero Report’s Misses The Point
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
The Penrose report sadly has missed a big opportunity to highlight to the public the obscene costs they are already incurring for Net Zero, and to propose radical changes while we still have a chance to pursue them. Worst of all, they have not told the public how much higher their bills will go in future to meet Miliband’s mad agenda.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
And on a macro scale..
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
The whole Green New Deal/energy transition project seems to be coming apart at the seams because it’s just not possible to live that way and with 2050 rushing toward us, people are giving it a serious go with disastrous results. No matter where people look, including in the fiscal details of Ontario’s supposed “Net Zero” plans, the costs are too high and the results too feeble even when people accept, or claim to accept, the underlying assumptions about an urgent man-made crisis.
Non-Green Jobs
While TATA Shut Port Talbot’s Blast Furnace, They Have Commissioned One Twice The Size In India
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
The switch will cost thousands of jobs.
Britain faces ‘huge social and economic scars’ under net zero, warns top union boss
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 26, 2024
“Britain’s switch to green energy will spark a jobs catastrophe if it is built on imports from China, one of Labour’s biggest union backers has warned.
Gary Smith, the general secretary of the GMB union, said the UK’s progress in cutting carbon emissions so far was largely based on the ‘decimation’ of manufacturing industries such as steelmaking, creating ‘huge social and economic scars’.”
Net Zero Watch lauds GMB’s [General and Municipal Workers Union] Net Zero realism
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 26, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/net-zero-watch-lauds-gmbs-net-zero-realism
Litigation Issues
ESG pseudo-science gets brutally debunked
By Paul Fitzpatrick, The Hill, Sep 24, 2024
https://thehill.com/opinion/4894942-esg-fiduciary-duty-study
Yes, Louisiana, there is a Scandal-“Pause”
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Sep 23, 2024
DoE court filing supports claims of buried 2023 study, LNG “pause” based on a lie
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Swinging tariffs on Chinese EV makers threaten to wipe out Europe’s legacy companies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2024
A sudden fit of sanity?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
In our relentless quest for good news at CDN, we’ve been pondering whether in all the ruckus over a “backlash” against climate alarmism we might not be seeing some badly needed clarity and focus among its proponents in office. Including the sudden mass flight in Canada from the once-sacred carbon taxes that, it turns out, are making essential energy more expensive without doing a dang thing to reduce even our trifling GHG emissions, let alone those of humanity generally, to say nothing of not fixing the weather.
The boiler tax is just the start of Labour’s energy catastrophe
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Subsidy madness
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 27, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/subsidy-madness
Tales of useless products in command economies are legion, but it is not just the quality of goods that falls short; the quantities are also likely to be wrong too – with bureaucrats delivering vast overproduction of some goods and failing to deliver an adequate supply of many others.
[SEPP Comment: Is the electricity market being distorted by government commands?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Britain paying highest electricity prices in the world
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
British companies are paying the highest electricity prices of anywhere in the developed world, official data has shown.
It also far outstripped European rivals and allies such as the US and Canada. The equivalent price was 17.84p in France, 17.71p in Germany and 6.48p in the US.
[SEPP Comment: The cost of leadership in an insane race.]
British industry ‘needs clarity’ over net zero future
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Asking clarity from a government that does not understand what it is doing?]
Fintan Slyly Moves the Goalposts
National Grid ESO responds to DESNZ and will not properly answer the questions posed
By David Turver, His Blog, Sep 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/fintan-slyly-moves-the-goalposts
In other words, there is no agreed definition of what a zero-carbon grid by 2030 actually means. They do not know what the target is. It seems that Miliband and Labour have set the country on a journey without properly defining the destination. And the initial request from Miliband and Stark reveals they don’t know how to get there. It’s the blind leading the blind to an unknown destination.
[SEPP Comment: How can one estimate costs, challenges, and risks without a clear understanding of the feasibility of the objective?]
Energy Issues — US
Two basic facts are driving the ignorance of America’s forthcoming energy crisis
By Ronald Stein, America Outloud News, Sep 23, 2024
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Microsoft strikes deal to reopen Three Mile Island nuclear plant
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sec 20, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4890751-three-mile-island-nuclear-plant-reopen-microsoft-deal
UK SMR Competition Narrows Contenders to Four Nuclear Designs
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 26, 2024
https://www.powermag.com/uk-smr-competition-narrows-contenders-to-four-nuclear-designs/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Swiss Alpine Photovoltaic System Begins To Crumble After Just 2 Years
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 22, 2024
Alaska Energy Policy: An Exchange (RPS in the balance)
By Kassie Andrews, Master Resource, Sep 26, 2024
Looking back on the historic cold snap (coldest prolonged weather in over a decade) vs. the performance of Fire Island Wind at that time gives us a glimpse into the very risk to be avoided.
During the 7-day coldest duration period from January 28th to February 3 (Anchorage Airport), the average capacity factor of Fire Island Wind was 20.3%. 100% unreliable, when we needed it most.
Maine’s massive “floating wind” folly — my report
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 23, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/09/23/maines-massive-floating-wind-folly-my-report
Scientists studying impact of painting [ONE] wind turbine blade black to reduce bird collisions
By Sean Nealon, Oregon State University, Sep 24, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2024-09-scientists-impact-turbine-blade-black.html#google_vignette
Many of the birds impacted by turbines are protected by federal laws such as the Migratory Bird Treaty Act and the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Equinor abandons ‘blue’ hydrogen plans
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 21, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
EVs Are “Up To Twice As Expensive” To Run As Regular Gas Cars In The UK, New Data Finds
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Sep 24, 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evs-are-twice-expensive-run-regular-gas-cars-uk-new-data-finds
De Facto EV Mandate? Congress Votes NO!
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 23, 2024
Carbon Schemes
That’s a big wave… and a bigger ocean
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
Canute, call your office. Imagine thinking 15 cargo loads of wood chips, which is a lot to humans but peanuts to the ocean, would actually change the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere in significant ways, let alone significantly beneficial. The hubris is astounding. As is the gullibility of woke Big Tech, evidently.
California Dreaming
Newsom’s “Special Session” on Gasoline Prices
By Edward Ringe, What’s Current, Accessed Sep 26, 2024
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859158?e=cd9fa89d1e
[SEPP Comment: Blaming Big Oil for the results of political policies.]
Environmental Industry
The Green Industrial Complex: The CEO of WWF is paid up to a million dollars to save “nature”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 21, 2024
The WWF gets about $470 million USD in revenue each year, of which “government grants” amounted to a nice $74 million last year (did you vote for that?)
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Free energy on Sundays under Miliband’s green revolution, says EDF
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
Households could have free electricity on certain days of the week as Ed Miliband’s green energy revolution boosts supplies, the boss of EDF Renewables has said.
Competitive decarbonisation is the only way to save our industrial communities-John Penrose
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2024
[SEPP Comment: De-industrialization to save industry?]
Hypocrite of the week of the month of the year
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
Worse, far worse, are the short ones, the shortest being 53 kilometres from Nanaimo to Vancouver, both inside the province of British Columbia. He also flew just 66 km, a 14-minute flight, from Toronto to Waterloo within Ontario. Have you, dear reader, ever taken a 14-minute flight?
Oh Noes! ‘West Antarctic ice sheet may disappear by 2300’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Or the year 3157?]
Newsflash: Trees mitigate heatwaves in cities, film at 11.
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2024
Scrap law making schools serve meat, urges Labour donor (Who Owns A Vegan Food Company!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2024
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 25, 2024
But look while we don’t claim to have been Casanovas even in our now somewhat distant youth, we just can’t get behind the slogan “Nothing says romance like a bowl of bugs.”
ARTICLES
1. The Climate Trap for CEOs
Companies that pledged net-zero emissions are now in legal jeopardy.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Sept. 26, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jbs-food-lawsuit-letitia-james-business-climate-commitments-will-hild-consumers-research-target-tyson-45412780?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
”CEOs once thought they could make progressive promises at little cost. They’ve learned that’s not true on racial preferences, and now comes the political trap on climate policy.
We’ve told you about the lawsuit by New York Attorney General Letitia James against JBS USA Food Co. Her claim is that the world’s largest beef producer has misled the public by targeting net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2040.
Ms. James says the claims are fraudulent and “constitute deceptive business practices and false advertising.” No progressive promise by business goes unpunished, and other companies may be targeted in the same way. Progressive groups have followed Ms. James, filing a lawsuit against Tyson on Sept. 18 for the net-zero claims and for boasting about its “climate smart beef.”
Now state Attorneys General on the other side of the political spectrum are echoing her concerns. On Thursday AGs Brenna Bird of Iowa, Kris Kobach of Kansas, Mike Hilgers of Nebraska and Tennessee’s Jonathan Skrmetti sent letters to three prominent food companies that sell beef warning that their climate commitments may put them at risk for litigation.”
The editorial goes through other examples then concludes with:
“CEOs understandably want to avoid political risk, and many think they can do that by signing up to progressive campaigns. This is naive. Politicians like Ms. James won’t be happy until they loot companies in businesses they don’t like through lawsuits and fines. The best business path is to focus on maximizing shareholder value, which is what CEOs are paid to do and happens to do the most good for society.”
************************
2. If Green Energy Is the Future, Bring a Fire Extinguisher
Lithium batteries are supposed to make the world safer. Instead they keep bursting into flames.
By Steve Goreham, WSJ, Sept. 25, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/if-green-energy-is-the-future-bring-a-fire-extinguisher-8e212871?mod=business_trendingnow_opn_pos2
TWTW Summary: The author of “Green Breakdown: The Coming Renewable Energy Failure” begins:
“Alternative energy is exploding—literally. Lithium battery fires are breaking out on highways and in factories, home garages and storage rooms. The rise in these fires is caused by government efforts to force the adoption of “green” energy.
Lithium batteries have high energy density, making them valuable for phones and portable appliances. But when they catch fire, they burn with high heat and can even blow up. That’s why airlines prohibit lithium batteries in checked baggage.
On June 24 a battery factory in Hwaseong, South Korea, caught fire, triggering explosions and killing 22 workers. Experts estimate that most were killed by toxic gases emitted by the burning batteries.
Scotland has suffered two major fires in battery-recycling centers this year. On April 8 a large fire broke out at Fenix Battery Recycling in Kilwinning. More than 40 firefighters and personnel from six different stations responded to the blaze, which burned for several days. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service urged nearby residents to remain indoors with windows closed as long as two days after the fire started.
On June 23 a large fire broke out at the battery-recycling facility of WEEE Solutions in Glasgow. Eyewitnesses reported explosions, noises like gunshots, “steel flying everywhere” and a huge plume of black smoke. Ten fire trucks were needed, and the blaze lasted four days.
E-bike battery fires are a leading cause of fires in New York City, causing 270 blazes last year and killing 18 people. These have become a serious problem in Australia, Canada and other nations as well. E-bicyclists often store their bikes in first-floor storerooms, where they can self-ignite and destroy the buildings. Even high-quality batteries are prone to self-ignition after damage or when connected to a faulty charging system.
Lithium batteries have been used for the past 30 years in phones and small appliances. But the introduction of electric cars led to a massive increase in battery size—and potential destructiveness. On Aug. 19 a Tesla semi-truck crashed into trees along Interstate 80 in California. The crash ignited the truck’s large lithium battery. Firefighters required 50,000 gallons of water to extinguish the flames, and the highway was closed for 15 hours. The California Advanced Clean Fleets regulation passed last year requires all new semi-trucks to be zero-emissions vehicles by 2036, which in practice means electric trucks with batteries prone to fire.
Automakers have contended with lithium-battery fires for more than a decade. Alfa Romeo, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Porsche, Tesla and other manufacturers have recalled millions of EVs because of battery-fire problems. Batteries can self-ignite while the vehicle is in motion, when connected to a charger, or even when sitting in a parking lot. EVs prone to self-ignition have been banned from parking lots in China, South Korea and across the U.S.”
The author concludes with other examples of sudden fires from EVs.
************************
Related