Ryan Garcia is convinced that Canelo Alvarez can defeat the undefeated four-belt light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev after watching his fight last Saturday night against Dmitry Bivol.
Garcia doesn’t say how the smaller 5’8″ Canelo (62-2-2, 39 KOs) would find a way to unseat the undisputed 175-lb champion Beterbiev (21-0, 20 KO) because he would be giving away a lot of size in that fight.
In Canelo’s last fight against Edgar Berlanga, he dominated a fighter that reportedly rehydrated to 193 lbs, which is in the same ballpark as Beterbiev. Canelo showed in that fight that he could easily handle the size of a true light heavyweight. Berlanga looked massive inside the ring against Canelo and even bigger than Beterbiev.
Beterbiev’s slower hand speed and work rate would be manageable for Canelo, who has dealt with many faster fighters than him during his career. Canelo, 34, is five years younger than the 39-year-old Beterbiev and should have more left in the tank.
Interestingly, he’s never expressed a desire to fight Beterbiev, which is odd because it’s a style that he’s more suited to fighting than the pure boxer Dmitry Bivol.
I think canelo beats Arthur
— RYAN GARCIA (@RyanGarcia) October 13, 2024
“Look at the age. Look at the older man in Beterbiev. In the back end of my career, I knew my pace wouldn’t match anyone else’s,” Johnny Nelson to Boxing King Media about Dmitry Bivol starting fast, getting the better of Artur Beterbiev in the first half of their fight.
“Beterbiev went at the same pace that he started at and at the same pace that he finished at. His pace didn’t change. Bivol came at a fast pace, and that’s why he won the first half of the fight. What Beterbiev did was stay consistent.”
Beterbiev greatly increased his pace beginning in the sixth and continued to fight at a faster pace as the fight progressed. He didn’t stay at the same pace because if he did, Bivol would have continued to outbox him like he’d done in rounds one through five. Beterbiev was throwing almost no punches in those early rounds, allowing Bivol to dominate because nothing was coming back.
“If they gave it a draw, I wouldn’t have complained. I think if they fight again, Bivol beats him handily. I think some of the scorecards were ridiculous, but it’s subjective,” said Nelson.
“Like Johnny said. If Beterbiev had come out and tried to sprint with Bivol in the first couple of rounds, he would have gassed because that’s what happens,” said trainer Dominic Ingle. “What he did was come in calm all the way through, and Bivol came in at a high pace, and he tailed off.”
I disagree with Ingle. If Beterbiev had come out fast in the first half of the fight, he’d have worn Bivol out that much faster and would have knocked him out. It was a mistake on Beterbiev’s part to start slowly and let Bivol get a sizable early lead because he almost milked it to get a decision victory.
Beterbiev can’t afford to start slow in the rematch, if there is one, because Bivol has already said he wished he’d moved more. In the rematch, Bivol will make it difficult for Beterbiev to get to him if he picks up an early lead.
“Now, if he were a video game. The heavy-handed shots that Beterbiev was throwing would have zapped his energy source,” said Ingle. “Bivol is very good and a very skilled boxer at scoring. Judges will score on the weight of the punching. If somebody is tapping and someone is landing heavy shots. They’re going to score it for the heavier fighter.”
It’s not just the heavy shots that Beterbiev was landing that the judges noted. Bivol’s movement indicated that he didn’t want to engage and was trying not to get knocked out. When the judges saw that, they understood that Bivol couldn’t withstand Beterbiev’s power and pressure. He was trying to get a cheap win.
“I thought Bivol was going to outbox him and win, but you can see where there’s an argument why Beterbiev did [win],” said Ingle. “The shots that he was landing were more damaging to Bivol, but Bivol is a very resilient fighter. It’s not surprising that of all the 20 fights that Beterbiev had, he knocked them all out. Now that he’s come to a high-level fighter like Bivol, he’s gone the distance.
“Bivol is not a massive puncher. He always beats everybody on points, more or less, and beats them on his boxing. The second time around, Bivol will have a better idea of what he needs to do because it was close, depending on what you like to see. Beterbiev drained Bivol’s energy sources. If it was a video game, he would have run out of energy against Beterbiev.”
Some of the heavy shots that Beterbiev hit Bivol with in rounds seven and eight zapped the energy out of him and took away his will to fight. Bivol looked a lot like he did in his clash last December against Lyndon Arthur. He got hurt in that fight and was on the defensive the entire second half. Bivol showed in those two fights that he’s not the type that goes out on his shield. When he gets hurt, he goes on the defensive, gets on his bike, and boxes. He stops throwing as much and plays it safe.
“So, you can see why that Beterbiev won that fight. For me, I had Bivol winning the fight because I was scoring it for someone who was boxing and getting out of the way,” said Ingle. “Even though the shots weren’t heavy-handed, it looked to me like Bivol was outboxing him. \
“If Beterbiev knocks him out, fair play. But for me, it’s who looks like they’re dominating. For me, it looked like Bivol was edging in front in a boxing fight,” said Ingle.
I’d have said Bivol by a round or a draw,” said Nelson. “No,” said Nelson when asked if the outcome was a robbery.
“They should do it again, and if it’s the same again, fair enough, ” said Ingle on a Beterbiev vs. Bivol rematch. “If Bivol wins, they can make a third fight out of it. The level where they’re at, it’s only a small percentage of who is going to win or lose. It’s not a massive gap. So, it’s not a surprise that they could go that way.”
The Beterbiev vs. Bivol rematch will not be as close as Ingle thinks because Artur now knows that he can dominate with pressure by rushing Dmitry. In the second half of the contest, Beterbiev showed that Bivol couldn’t handle his power and showed no willingness to stand and fight. That won’t change in the rematch. Bivol will run when confronted with pressure from Beterbiev because he doesn’t like getting hit and can’t handle body or headshots.
“Because of how the fight went. One fighter finished stronger than the other,” said Nelson on why none of the three judges scored it for Bivol. “It’s because of how the fight went, and that’s why I think it was a seesaw effect.”
Beterbiev cruised from the seventh round, appearing to sweep the last six rounds of the fight. When including those six rounds to the one or two that Beterbiev won in the first six rounds, it’s understandable why the judges gave him the decision over Bivol.
“There’s a reason why Beterbiev is a three-belt champion and still holds them. It’s because he’s defended them against everyone he’s come up against,” said Ingle. “It’s hard to keep the three belts, especially when you have the IBF because they’ll put a mandatory on you all the time that you probably don’t want to fight because it’s not worth it,” said Ingle.
It wasn’t a big deal for Beterbiev to hold onto his IBF title until now because he’s got a big-money rematch that could happen in the first half of 2025. The rematch won’t have as much meaning without the undisputed championship on the line, which means that Beterbiev will either need to pay his mandatory challenger Michael Eifert a step aside or fight him.
That shouldn’t take long for Beterbiev to get Eifert out of the way. That would be an easy early-round knockout win for Beterbiev if he wants to face him in January or February. Beterbiev could then face Bivol in a rematch in May or June unless His Excellency Turki Alalshikh prefers to have him defend against the winner of the David Benavidez vs. David Morrell fight.
