China’s bold push to master hypersonic air-launched weapons — deploying cutting-edge drones, balloons and next-gen strike vehicles — signals a significant shift in global military power and raises the stakes for US missile defense.
This month, the War Zone reported that China has conducted tests of hypersonic uncrewed air vehicles, launching them from drones and high-altitude balloons. The report cited recent footage and images.
According to the War Zone, the vehicles related to the MD-22 hypersonic military aircraft concept revealed in 2022 were released from a TB-001 drone and a high-altitude balloon. The report says the MD-19, MD-21, and MD-2 vehicles, featuring wedge-shaped fuselages, delta wings and twin vertical tails, were tested by the Institute of Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMCAS) and the Guangdong Aerodynamic Research Academy (GARA).
The War Zone says the MD-19, equipped with retractable landing gear, was seen landing on a runway after release. The propulsion systems remain unclear, but the designs suggest advanced high-speed engines like dual-mode ramjets or scramjets. It states that these tests highlight China’s ongoing investment in hypersonic technologies to enhance its military capabilities.
The report notes that the vehicles could be used for kinetic strikes or for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. It says they underscore China’s commitment to advancing its hypersonic capabilities, which pose significant technological challenges and strategic implications for global security.
Launching hypersonic weapons from various platforms allows attacks from multiple directions and altitudes, with these diverse air-based launchers adding tactical options for China.
For instance, in February 2023, Asia Times noted that China had unveiled its emerging hypersonic weapons triad, comprising sea, air and land-based systems, significantly enhancing its conventional deterrence capabilities against the US and Taiwan.
The YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, capable of speeds up to Mach 10, was tested from a Type 055 cruiser, highlighting its operational flexibility and survivability. The missile’s introduction marks a pivotal evolution in China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, with its speed rendering current shipboard defense systems ineffective.
The air-launched variant, carried by the H-6 strategic bomber, extends the missile’s range, posing a threat to US bases and warships in the Pacific. Additionally, the land-based DF-17 missile, capable of extreme maneuvers and speeds up to Mach 5, complements the triad, enhancing China’s ability to “box in” Taiwan with long-range precision strikes.
Multiple hypersonic attacks from various directions can complicate the US missile defense of key bases for the defense of Taiwan, such as those in Guam and Okinawa. Simultaneous launches from land, sea, and air platforms can overwhelm missile defense systems. By saturating different layers of an adversary’s defense, China can increase the likelihood of penetrating critical targets.
This month, Asia Times mentioned that the US’s recent successful ballistic missile intercept test from Guam underscores the island’s strategic importance and the challenges it faces in missile defense. The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) conducted the test involving a Standard Missile-3 Block IIA intercepting a medium-range ballistic missile, marking a significant milestone in developing the Aegis Guam System.
However, Guam’s defense infrastructure faces several hurdles. The island’s limited land space and mountainous terrain complicate the deployment of missile defense systems, while the integration of multiple systems, such as Aegis Ashore, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot, poses risks of uncoordinated responses during saturation attacks involving ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles.
Additionally, the reliance on fixed sensor-to-shooter links may limit adaptability against next-generation threats, including multi-domain attacks combining cyber, electronic, and kinetic strikes. The finite number of interceptors per system also raises concerns about sustaining defense during large-scale, multi-axis attacks. Interceptor missile supply chain bottlenecks and outdated production capabilities further exacerbate these challenges.
Hypersonic speeds significantly shorten the interval between launch detection and impact. Multi-platform launches further complicate the situation, creating simultaneous threats from various domains and leaving defenders with little time to respond.
In a 2023 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) report, Evan Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara observe that hypersonic weapons are reshaping US deterrence against China by increasing the risk of inadvertent escalation and altering the conventional military balance.
Montgomery and Yoshihara note that, unlike conventional ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons introduce greater ambiguity due to their speed, unpredictable flight paths, and reduced detection windows.
This situation might require a “launch-on-warning” posture. In such a case, missile defense systems and second-strike capabilities must be ready to react immediately upon identifying a potential threat without awaiting confirmation on whether the incoming missile is nuclear or conventional.
Further, Montgomery and Yoshihara say that China’s development of hypersonic systems could enable precision regional strikes, heightening the perceived credibility of Chinese threats in a Taiwan contingency.
With the US unwilling to be outdone by China, Asia Times mentioned this month that the recent US Army test of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile has marked a significant milestone in the US’s race for long-range precision firepower against China and Russia.
The successful launch signifies progress toward fielding the Dark Eagle system. The first complete Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) battery is expected by fiscal year 2025. The missile is also slated for deployment on Zumwalt-class destroyers and Block V Virginia-class submarines.
Given those developments, Montgomery and Yoshihara caution that US deployment of hypersonic strike capabilities could threaten China’s strategic nuclear arsenal, placing China’s nuclear forces at higher risk of disarming first strikes. They say if China perceives its nuclear arsenal as vulnerable, it may consider a preemptive nuclear strike to avoid disarmament.
By extension, Montgomery and Yoshihara note that US reliance on hypersonics could also trigger Chinese use of theater nuclear weapons to coerce US allies like Japan to stay neutral in a crisis.
Despite the hype surrounding hypersonic weapons, a US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report this month mentions that the US faces critical challenges in its hypersonic weapons development as debates over mission requirements, affordability, and production scale intensify.
The report points out that despite significant investment, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has yet to formalize mission requirements or establish a program of record, reflecting uncertainty about the weapons’ strategic role. It states that DoD officials are divided on production goals, with some advocating for large-scale deployment to achieve deterrence while others emphasize limited inventories due to high costs. It also raises questions about how many hypersonic weapons the DoD can realistically procure.
Additionally, the report mentions that the US Congress has pressed for clarity on mission sets, cost analysis, and required enabling technologies, such as space-based sensors and autonomous command systems.
The report points out that while hypersonic weapons promise to penetrate adversary A2/AD zones, they may be no more survivable than existing systems, such as ballistic missiles with maneuvering warheads.