Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2024

Cropland Exposure to Extreme Dryness and Wetness in China Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8715

Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO₂ efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287

Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China^,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Seasonal patterns of CO₂ exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the U.S. Gulf and Southeastern Coasts, Jorgensen & Nielsen-Gammon, Journal of Hydrometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0157.1

Unpacking the progression of climate uncertainty into precarity in the urban context of drylands: the case of floods in Lodwar, Turkana, Korzenevica et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2434135

Climate change economics

Author Correction: World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO₂ emissions, Freire-González et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-75404-2

Climate change mitigation public policy research

1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230

Carbon territoriality at the land-water interface, Miller, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102954

Country-level differences in the electrified kilometers of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles across Europe, Mandev & Sprei, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad96e1

Enhancing decision-making for climate change mitigation and sustainable urban growth, Parvar et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102223

Estimating the distributive impacts of climate mitigation policies in the power sector in Ghana, Lambon-Quayefio et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101589

Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2

Increasingly Active Wildfire Seasons Threaten the Sustainability of Forest-Backed Carbon Offset Programs, Badgley, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17599

Justice or just plans? Reviewing the energy transition strategy of Brazil’s Ceará state, Abram & Hoge Cropanzano Vega-Hernández Stretch Miller Hintz A.L.W. Watson , Social Thought Open Access 10.1300/j131v22n02_11

National goal, local resistance: How institutional gaps hinder local renewable energy development in Taiwan, Shen & Tai , Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101586

Negotiating risks in electricity market regimes: What lessons can be learned from the history of liberalisation reform for net zero transitions?, Bolton, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103790

Strengthening commercial viability through greater inclusiveness in rural mini-grid deployment: Insights from Nigeria and Kenya, Sesan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101584

The intangible technological innovation system: The role and influence of voluntary and compliance carbon markets on carbon dioxide removal in the European Union, Deknatel & van der Loos, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103851

To reform or not reform? Competing energy transition perspectives on Indonesia’s monopoly electricity supplier Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), Oertel, European Education Open Access 10.2753/eue1056-4934270485

What impedes solar energy deployment? New evidence from power developers in the Arab Gulf states, Sim & Young, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101597

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A study on risk perception and adaptive behavior of the Chinese public toward urban heat based on the MPPACC model, Chen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102224

Climate change mitigation and adaptation through optical-wireless communication networks: applications, challenges, and opportunities, Mrabet & Sliti, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480190

Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation, Karagiannakis et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.930

Future research directions for understanding the interconnections between climate change, water scarcity, and mobility in rural Central Asia, Hermans et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2436090

Growing Threat of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Inland Areas of East China, Yan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111877

Stabilising CO₂ concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5

The role of community leadership in building community adaptive capacity to coastal hazards – Insights from neighborhood networks in Semarang, Indonesia, Gisevius et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103963

Climate change impacts on human culture

International tourism carbon footprint and carbon transfer along the belt and road regions, Shi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1440510

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate intervention research in the World Climate Research Programme: a perspective, Hurrell et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1505860

‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action, Kopp et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02196-8

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Selling Hot Air. Lessons from how Shell’s flagship carbon capture project sold $200M of credits for reductions that never happened, Greenpeace Canada

Shell’s flagship carbon capture project has made over $200 million (CAD) selling emissions credits for reductions that never happened. The findings come as Canadian oil sands companies advertise carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a solution to oil sands pollution while lobbying against regulations that would cap emissions from the sector.

Right here! Right now! New roles for energy efficiency in an electrified energy system, Santini et al., Regulatory Assistance Project

The European Commission is currently developing an electrification strategy to deliver this vital tool for meeting EU climate targets. One aspect that has been historically overlooked is the contribution of energy efficiency policy in the electrification process. Up to now, EU governments have mainly put in place energy efficiency policies to reduce energy consumption overall, regardless of their impact on electrification. The authors explain how energy efficiency can play a crucial role in making electrification more affordable and inclusive. They show the growing importance of considering the time and location of energy savings — to maximize the benefits of energy efficiency for electrification — and provide three key recommendations to help decision-makers enhance the impacts of their policies.

Extreme weather risks: An analysis of England’s vulnerability to flooding and heat, AXA UK

The authors identify the areas of England where homes are most vulnerable to risks from extreme weather, with London coming top of the table for both flooding and heat. Sheffield residents are at high risk for flooding but not heat and Bristol and Birmingham homes are vulnerable to heat but not flooding. The in-depth study creates a heat map of England showing areas most vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather, against the backdrop of an ambitious UK Government housebuilding target. More than half (52%) of people polled said their homes were not equipped to deal with the impact of flooding or extreme heat, a lesser-known risk that can cause cracking and subsidence AXA UK claims data provides insight into the future cost of flooding – homes most at risk face financial costs of at least £818m by 2055.

Advancing the UNSC climate security agenda, Louise Wiuff Moe, Danish Institute for International Studies

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) does not have a climate security resolution that formally places the matter on the council’s agenda, nor a dedicated budget for this area. Traditional military and security solutions are ill-suited to address the root causes of climate-related insecurities. A more inclusive security approach is needed to consider interconnected risks, including human, food, and environmental insecurities. Initiatives within UN missions to strengthen interagency collaboration and adopt nexus approaches should be upscaled to enhance synergies between climate adaptation support, climate finance, and peace and security efforts. Regional climate security frameworks provide key entry points for the UN and UNSC to enhance international–regional partnerships.

The EU’s Triple-Nexus Challenge: Climate, Conflict, Democracy The EU’s fragmented approaches to the crises of climate change, Youngs et al., The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The EU’s fragmented approaches to the crises of climate change, conflict, and democracy fall short by not addressing the mutually reinforcing links between them. Brussels needs an integrated strategy to tackle the emerging three-way nexus and mitigate the vulnerabilities it creates. The EU needs ways to integrate its currently disparate climate, conflict, and democracy policies into a seamless whole. This will become an ever more pressing and cross-cutting imperative for EU foreign policy but, at present, risks getting lost from view because of other more tangible, short-term priorities.

Safeguarding ­International Climate ­Protection Against the Trump Agenda. What Germany and the EU Can Do Now, Vinke et al., German Council on Foreign Relations

International climate protection is in trouble. A second Trump presidency will derail US climate leadership, leading to a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reducing international climate finance. Therefore, the EU and Germany must step up, leading by expanding green tech development and strengthening partnerships with key global players.

Congressional Budget Office’s Benchmark Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, David Austin and Ron Gecan, Congressional Budget Office

The Congressional Budget Office maintains a 10-year benchmark projection of annual GHG emissions to estimate the effects that certain GHG emissions policies, such as setting a price on those emissions, would have on the federal budget. This report presents the CBO’s most recent projection of GHG emissions. According to that projection, GHG emissions in the United States, measured in CO2e, decline by about 8 percent from 2025 to 2034. That decline is driven by a projected decrease of 15 percent in energy-related emissions of CO2, partially offset by an increase of 9 percent in other, non-energy-­related emissions.

Aligning with Net Zero in the PR & Advertising Sector, InfluenceMap

The authors analyze the corporate clients of the Big Six public relations and advertising agency holding companies – Dentsu, Havas, IPG, Publicis, Omnicom, and WPP. Client mapping of the ‘Big Six’ reveals significant potential ‘conflicts of climate interest’, where clients of the same holding company have opposing objectives in their climate policy advocacy. Using available Ad / PR agency client lists, the authors categorize clients with a traffic light system: Obstructive (Red), Partially Misaligned (Amber), Partially Aligned (Yellow), or Supportive (Green) in their climate policy engagement. While several of the Big 6 holding companies have strategies to work with clients to promote ‘low-carbon’ or ‘sustainable’ products to the market, none have developed science-based methodologies to ensure these products align with a 1.5°C future.

Defining Voltaic Landscape for Sustainability, Hernandez et al., Wild Energy Center, University of California, Davis

As California faces pressure to grow both food and energy while protecting biodiversity — all on a finite amount of land — a trend is emerging in the field of clean energy: multi-use solar projects or sustainable voltaics. The authors define such projects and describe the challenges and opportunities they present for the state’s landscapes.

Integrating peacebuilding and climate action. Lessons from Nigeria and Kenya, International Alert

In climate security hotspots, where natural resources under severe climate stress are driving conflict, climate action, and peacebuilding can and should go hand in hand. Northern Kenya and Nigeria’s Northwest and Middle Belt are examples of such hotspots where peacebuilding and climate action can effectively be integrated. The authors demonstrate how integrating peacebuilding approaches into climate programming can contribute to more effective, needs-oriented, and environmentally and socially sustainable responses to climate security risks.

Alaska’s Changing Environment, Thoman and McFarland, editors, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks

The authors highlight environmental changes and extremes that impact Alaskans’ lives and livelihoods. Over the last five years extreme weather, climate, and environmental events have become more frequent. All regions of the state have been impacted, from landslides in Southeast and typhoon Merbok along the Bering Sea to long-term erosion and permafrost thaw in northwest Alaska. The authors update key long-term climate trends and highlight changes and impacts that have emerged or accelerated in recent years.

The 2024 Wealth Report. Cultivating resilience in a changing landscape, Beresford Research, Chubb

In this survey of affluent North Americans, the majority with assets exceeding $5 million, the authors found that climate change, cyber threats, and valuables collection security have emerged as the top concerns shaping how the wealthy manage and protect their assets.

Climate X Report Projects $800 Million in Climate-related Losses for Fifa World Cup Venues by 2050, Climate X

Some of the world’s most iconic football stadiums, including those hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, face significant financial losses by 2050 due to escalating climate threats. The authors evaluated the impact of 10 climate hazards, including flooding, wildfires, drought, and extreme heat, under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario. The findings show a sharp increase in financial losses, growing from $130 million in 2020 to an estimated $800 million by 2050. Nearly 40% of total projected losses by 2050 are concentrated in just three venues with the highest Total Loss Percentage. Surface flooding and extreme heat emerged as the most pervasive threats, with some venues facing combined annual losses equivalent to nearly 2% of their current replacement value. While some European stadiums benefit from more temperate climates, U.S. venues – especially those in coastal or high-heat areas – face significantly higher risks.

Interlinking climate change with the Water – Energy – Food – Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Mediterranean Basin, Drobinski et al., Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change

The Mediterranean region is currently dealing with critical global challenges, including water scarcity, food and energy insecurity, and ecosystem degradation. These challenges are interconnected and are collectively referred to as the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus. The report represents a significant step in understanding the complex relationships between water, energy, food, and ecosystems in the Mediterranean. The authors offer a comprehensive assessment of the available scientific knowledge on these issues, covering the drivers of change, cascading impacts, and response options for addressing the multiple challenges in the region. They emphasize the need for cross-sectoral coordination, technological and social innovation, and ecosystem-based solutions, including nature-based, and transformative governance to mitigate risks and maximize synergies across the WEFE components.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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