WPSD Local 6 is activating a Weather Authority Alert for Saturday, for the potential of significant flash flooding from heavy rain, and a small chance for a few severe thunderstorms.
A very active stretch of weather is upon us over the next week, with heavy rain and storms for the start of our weekend, then a return to winter next week.
We are concerned for the possibility of widespread and significant flash flooding in parts of the area on Saturday. Much of the Local 6 area is under a Flood Watch for Saturday into Sunday morning. The National Weather Service has described this setup as a “Particularly Dangerous Situation”. There is potential for flooding issues to develop in areas that would not normally experience flooding where the heaviest rain materializes.
Forecast data indicates the potential for widespread rainfall amounts of at least 2-6″ across portions of the area, with the heaviest rain likely in Western Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee. Some isolated amounts of 6-8″ are possible. The heaviest rain will occur during the afternoon and evening hours.
The Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, has placed much of Western Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee in a level four “high” risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding. High risk outlooks are only issued nationally a few times a year, and the last one issued locally was in September 2018 with the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. Locally, this setup looks similar to a flooding event we experienced in February 2021, when portions of Western Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee received 4-6″ of rain. Significant flooding occurred in and around the Murray area.
A reminder that the majority of flood-related deaths occur when people drive into flooded roads. Never drive around barricades or attempt to judge water depth and drive through. As little as 12-24″ of moving water can sweep your car off the road.
In addition to the flooding risk, there will also be a threat for a line of severe thunderstorms if enough warm and unstable air is able to make it into the area Saturday afternoon. There is a decent amount of uncertainty if we will get warm enough for severe storms to make it this far north. If we do, the highest threat for severe storms would be in Northwest Tennessee, with a risk possibly extending into Western Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel. Damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be possible if ingredients for severe weather materialize.
After Saturday’s rain and storms, our attention then turns to the return of winter next week. Much colder air returns Sunday and Arctic cold will settle in for several days. This will set the stage for a round of snow from Tuesday PM into early Wednesday AM. Forecast guidance is in good agreement on this system crossing our area and leading to some accumulation, but there is still some uncertainty about how much snow will fall.
After the snow departs the area, bitterly cold temperatures will continue into late next week.
