Carrillo believes that the tariffs, combined with other economic factors and potentially less regulation in the lending market, could lead the country to another housing collapse similar to the one in 2008.
Real estate analyst Nick Gerli warns that the US housing market is showing signs of trouble similar to the 2008 crisis, especially in new home construction. Builders are struggling to sell homes and turning to rent-to-own strategies.https://t.co/AWBjDsCDYV
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) March 29, 2025
He is urging lenders and mortgage brokers to exercise extra diligence to ensure each potential borrower is well-qualified.
“What I’m hoping from bankers, mortgage lenders, brokers, and even developers too, is to really look at the risk,” Carrillo said. “Typically, I’m advocating for less restriction to create more opportunity. But in this environment right now, we need to weigh the level of risk. They need to look at those profit and loss statements, what’s being put on an application. If it doesn’t make sense and they’re not making the right calculations in this tariff world, then they should be denying those applications.”
Carrillo feels that tariffs should only be used in extreme circumstances and fears this round of tariffs could lead to a major economic catastrophe if the Trump administration is not careful.
“I believe in a free-trade market,” Carrillo said. “I believe that tariffs should be used as a form of economic punishment, but not in a way that creates this massive tariff war that I believe is going to lead us into a recession by the end of the year, and if we’re not careful, could lead us into a Great Depression. It was less than 100 years ago that we started the Great Depression, and it happened because of tariffs.”