“The total number of US households, which represents the demand for homes, is constantly growing. So, an annual pace of 4 million existing-home sales today is, relatively speaking, much weaker than the same number 15 years ago, given the increase in demand.”
Fleming pointed out that the total number of households in the US has increased by 18% over the last 15 years, from 112 million in 2010 to 132 million in 2025.
While pending home sales have increased recently, the February report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed numbers still near historic lows. As bad as that sounds, Fleming suggests that when the pace of home sales is compared to past decades and the increase in total households, the numbers look even worse.
“In February, total combined home sales were 5 million seasonally adjusted annualized sales, or 3.7% of total households, which is 1.1 percentage points below the historic pre-pandemic average of 4.8%,” Fleming said. “If total home sales were tracking at the long-run average percentage of total households, the pace would be 6 million. Other than the brief dip in 2010, due to the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit, this level of sales activity as a share of total households is similar to the early 1980s.”
While Fleming isn’t predicting that the housing market trend will continue on the same path as that decade, there are similarities between that era and the present.