The Iranian missile attack on Israel failed in all its major objectives. Remarkably, no Israelis were killed or injured – thanks to Israel’s air defenses and its extensive system of shelters, plus help from US Navy ships in the Mediterranean.
There are two problems ahead. The first is that Iran has hundreds of ballistic missiles. It launched 180 on October 1, compared with 120 last April. Iran’s aim is to saturate Israel’s air defenses, which it partly managed to do this time.
The second problem is that at some point Iran will be able to mount nuclear warheads on its missiles. This creates an existential problem for Israel.
Israel cannot reasonably rely only on air defenses, no matter how good they are. It has to go after the enemy’s ability to muster hundreds of ballistic missiles. This means that one of Israel’s main security interests is to destroy launch capabilities and hit manufacturing sites for the missiles. Israel’s other imperative is to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capability, something that former President Trump immediately grasped.
As it is, Israel was largely successful fending off the latest attack. One Palestinian man was killed in Jericho on the West Bank, hit by part of a missile body from a shot-down rocket. (The Palestinian Authority does not have a civil defense system. Nor does Hamas in Gaza, aside from tunnels for its army.)
Iran made many claims and published fake images to demonstrate how it defeated Israel. But even Russian mil-bloggers such as Rybar recognized Iran’s propaganda and denounced it. Rybar wrote:
In these [Iranian supplied] images, many of the alleged impact points are actually just regular trees and shadows visible even on Google Maps. Given this, it can be assumed that most of the photos published so far are not actual up to date Maxar images, but rather black-and-white screenshots from Google Maps.
When looking at the black-and-white images, there is indeed an impression of fire damage, but a look at the color photos immediately puts everything in its place…. The current attempt by some media to debunk the negative impact of the strike looks ridiculous and undermines the essence of the Iranian attack: The desire to pass off shadows, trees, and dark-colored areas as impacts gives Israelis a reason to mock the quality of the media resources of the “Axis of Resistance” and their intelligence.
That night
Israel has a layered and partially integrated air defense system. It is linked to US air defenses and relies on an Israeli long-range radar, Green Pine (EL/M 2080), and a US secret radar site in the Negev known as Site 512, operated by some 120 US personnel. According to published reports, Site 512 features a powerful long range X-band radar (AN/TPY-2) which is also used to support the US THAAD terminal high altitude air defense system.
During Iran’s April 13 combined missile and drone attack on Israel, Israel and its neighbor Jordan and the US Air Force (possibly also Saudi Arabia) shot down all the drones and the 120 cruise missiles, mainly using fighter aircraft.
In contrast, this time there were no drones or slow-flying cruise missiles. There were only ballistic missiles fired from Iran plus Hezbollah’s short-range missiles fired from Lebanon. Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles, and there were approximately 100 or more Hezbollah missiles in the north of Israel.
The US reports that two of its AEGIS warships USS Bulkeley (DDG-84) and the USS Cole (DDG-67) in the Mediterranean Sea launched 12 interceptor missiles in support of Israel. It is likely these were SM-3 1B interceptors that can hit incoming missiles outside of the earth’s atmosphere (exo-atmospheric). The Pentagon says the US interceptors destroyed their targets.
Iran launched a mix of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), including Emad, a liquid-fueled missile, Ghadr-110 (first stage liquid-fueled, second solid fuel), Fatah 1 (solid fuel) and Khaybar Shekan (solid fuel). Liquid-fueled missiles take time to fuel, and the process often can be observed by satellites or other surveillance systems. Solid-fuel rockets are essentially ready to go.
Iran claimed that its missiles, including its newest ones (Fatah-1 and Khaybar Shekan) are hypersonic and have maneuvering warheads, making it difficult for air defenses to defeat them. However, Israel’s Army (IDF) reported that none of the missiles were actually hypersonic, nor did they have maneuvering warheads.
Israel’s system
Israel’s air defense system consists of four main elements. These are
- Iron Dome, designed for short-range intercepts;
- David’s Sling for medium range threats and capable against heavier missiles;
- Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 with exo-atmospheric capabilities designed to destroy ballistic missiles before they arrive on Israel’s territory
- C-dome, a version of Iron Dome operating from Sa’ar 6-class corvettes at sea, the first of which became operational in 2023.
Arrow 2 has the following sophisticated capabilities:
- high and low altitude interception capabilities;
- hypersonic velocity;
- powerful and unique fragmentation warhead;
- large defended area;
- high lethality against all types of tactical ballistic missiles and warheads;
- high maneuverability utilizing both advanced aerodynamics and thrust vector control (TVC);
- state-of-the-art end-game sensors;
- advanced navigation, guidance and control;
- two solid propulsion stages: booster and sustainer; and
- overall very short reaction time.
Arrow 3 goes beyond Arrow 2. It has a much greater maneuvering capability (its kill vehicle can switch directions dramatically, allowing it to pivot to see approaching satellites) and greater range than Arrow 2. Unlike Arrow 2, Arrow 3 uses “hit to kill” technology, meaning that its warhead smashes into the threat and destroys it kinetically. Arrow 2 by contrast uses a blast fragmentation warhead and is less accurate (four meters, but sufficient to destroy an incoming threat).
Arrow 3 also is hypersonic. Arrow 3 can be used as an anti-satellite weapon – of critical importance as the Middle East slides into a future nuclear confrontation. Arrow 3 can be silo-launched, making it more secure in a nuclear scenario.
In 2019, Arrow 3 missiles were tested in Kodiak, Alaska. The Israeli Ballistic Missile Organization and the US Missile Defense Agency cooperated in arranging this test to see if the Arrow 3 performed effectively in the exo-atmosphere (and if it did better than the interceptors of the US Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System). Arrow 3 destroyed all its targets in the test.
Along with the two AEGIS destroyers, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 were the primary defense systems Israel used both in April and in October against Iranian IRBMs.
Israel’s David’s Sling supported Arrow by going after missiles that got past the main defensive net. David’s Sling does not operate in the exo-atmosphere, like Arrow, but it is designed to take down tactical ballistic missiles. This system was built to replace the old HAWK and more modern Patriot US-origin air defense systems.
Arrow is a joint Israeli (Rafael) and US (RTX) air defense capability. Its interceptor is described as “a solid-fuel rocket motor booster, followed by an asymmetrical kill vehicle with advanced steering for super-maneuverability during the kill stage. A three-pulse motor provides additional acceleration and maneuverability during the terminal phase.” The system can distinguish between real warheads and decoys.
Some of the available video taken in Israel shows low-altitude intercepts. These are evidence of David’s Sling or Patriot.
The Israeli Iron Dome system played no known role other than in the north against Hezbollah rockets. Its Tamir interceptor is rather small and is not optimal against heavier missile threats.
Israel’s air defense complex is optimized so that missiles that are unlikely to hit a significant target are given lower priority for intercept than those trying to knock out a strategic target or population center. Israel probably does not have enough interceptors to knock out all incoming threats.
The limitations
The primary problem was not effectiveness but saturation.
As yet there is no hard statistical information available for the performance of either of the two Arrow systems or David’s Sling. It is true that two air bases were hit but neither was put out of action and Israel says no aircraft were damaged or destroyed. These were subject to a high volume of attempted strikes aimed at overwhelming Israel’s air defense assets.
Israel’s air defenses probably are the best in the world, but Israel cannot rely solely on air defenses to protect the nation. It must go after the enemy’s launch sites and missile manufacturing capabilities and Iran’s nuclear weapons assets. There is no alternative as Israel faces a nation, Iran, that seeks its annihilation.
A totally passive defense is, at the end of the day, insufficient – and miracles, even in Israel, are subject to rationing.
Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.