Second Biggest Month-to-Month Temperature Drop Since 2009 – Watts Up With That?

Dec 24 to Jan 25 was the 2nd biggest month-to-month temperature drop in the surface temperature record at 7.13°F in one month. 

As many readers know, we follow the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) closely here, keeping it updated monthly on the right sidebar along with the UAH global satellite record. I choose these metrics because I and others have shown the rest of the surface temperature record to be nothing more than a collection of warm-biased and unreliable statistically maladjusted garbage data. Be as upset as you wish, but that’s the facts, jack.

This fact is something you won’t see splashed across the headlines of the mainstream climate press: the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) just recorded its second largest month-to-month temperature drop in the entire time series, beaten only by the plunge from November to December 2009. That’s right—despite the endless drumbeat of “hottest ever” claims, the pristine, state-of-the-art USCRN network is telling a different story for February 2025.

Let’s set the stage. The USCRN, operational since 2005, is NOAA’s gold standard for tracking temperature trends across the contiguous U.S. With 114 stations deliberately sited away from urban heat islands and other human influences, it’s about as clean a dataset as you’ll find. No adjustments, no homogenization—just raw, reliable numbers. According to the latest NCEI report, January 2025 clocked in at a chilly 29.2°F for the contiguous U.S., already 0.9°F below the long-term average and the coldest January in the USCRN’s 20-year record. Not exactly the “scorching” narrative we’ve been sold.

Fast forward to February 2025, and preliminary data (as of February 20) shows a jaw-dropping slide. While the full month’s numbers are still trickling in, the month-to-month drop from January’s 29.2°F is shaping up to be a whopper—second only to the 2009 late-year nosedive. Back then, temperatures crashed by nearly 8°F between November and December, a seasonal anomaly that raised eyebrows but didn’t fit the warming script, so it quietly faded from the spotlight. This time, early indications suggest a plunge approaching 7°F or more, a rare event in a dataset designed for stability and precision.

What’s driving this? February’s outlook from NOAA hinted at a cold snap across the northern tier, with La Niña’s influence possibly flexing its muscle after a tepid start. But let’s not kid ourselves—attributing this to any single cause without digging deeper is premature. The USCRN’s strength is its consistency, not its ability to explain every wiggle. What it does tell us is that big swings still happen, even in a network built to filter out noise and bias.

Cue the inevitable spin: “This is just weather, not climate!” Fair enough—month-to-month changes don’t rewrite long-term trends. But when the trendsetters clutch their pearls over every heatwave, cherry-picking highs to fuel the crisis machine, a record-breaking drop deserves equal airtime. The USCRN’s full history shows no significant warming signal since it began, hovering around a flatline while global datasets scream “unprecedented.” Maybe it’s time to ask why the U.S.—with some of the best instrumentation on the planet—keeps defying the script.

For perspective, that November-to-December 2009 drop was a beast—almost 8°F (7.58°F) in a single month, dwarfing typical seasonal shifts. February 2025 might not steal the crown, but coming in second (seen at left) with one month 7.13°F drop in a 20-year record isn’t chump change. It’s a reminder that nature still has tricks up its sleeve, and the USCRN is catching them in real time.

So, while the NOAA climate establishment gears up for its next “State of the Climate” sermon, let’s tip our hats to the data doing the talking. The USCRN’s February surprise isn’t a debunking of anything—it’s just a fact. And facts, as they say, are stubborn things. Stay tuned for the final numbers, but for now, this is one cold splash of reality worth chewing on.

Related